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Thursday, February 02, 2017

Labor mobility destroying nations


The map above demonstrates what has happened as a result of the European Union's establishment of a free trade zone throughout Europe. Notice that despite the absence of the promised economic growth throughout the EU, the increase in the international mobility rate has increased considerably in the last decade, even in the wealthier countries such as Germany, Switzerland, and the UK. Incredibly, some of the Balkan states have seen more than one-third of their populations abandon the country!

This conclusively proves what I have concluded with regards to the way that free trade inevitably destroys nations. The freer the trade, the more endangered the nation. How can you have a nation when its people are scattered all throughout the world, trying to find employment? It is evidence that confirms what I'd first warned about in a free trade post back in 2012. As Dr. James Miller admitted in our debate, later published as On the Question of Free Trade, labor mobility, and its societal costs, are something that no free trade-advocating economist has ever taken into account

In the former EU15, only about 0.1% of the working age population changes its country of residence in a given year. Conversely, in the US, about 3% of the working age population moves to a different state every year, These institutional and cultural differences suggest comparing internal geographical mobility in the US with the situation within EU Member States rather than between Member States.

In doing so, the figures narrow the ‘mobility gap’ between Europe and the US. Between 2000 and 2005, about 1% of the working age population had changed residence each year from one region to another within the EU15 countries, compared to an overall interstate mobility rate of 2.8%-3.4% in the US during the same period of time."

What this means is that US workers are about 3x more willing to change their state of residence than European workers are willing to change their region of residence within national borders, and 30x more inclined to change their state of residence than Europeans are inclined to change their country of residence, even though the US state-to-state change likely involves a bigger geographic move than the EU country-to-country one.

It should be noted that increasing this country-to-country labor mobility rate within the EU is not only a major goal of the EU economic advisers, but the explicitly stated reason for this goal is their belief that increased labor mobility is required in order to increase economic growth.

Now, let's look at what that annual 3 percent intra-US mobility translates to in terms of the overall population. The statistics are as follows for Americans between the ages of 25 and 44:
  • East 54.3 percent
  • Midwest 65.0 percent 
  • South 47.3 percent
  • West 40.2 percent
This is why the Midwest has changed much less over the last 40 years than either the East Coast or the West Coast; more Midwesterners stay in the Midwest and maintain their laws and cultural traditions. But more importantly, note what this signifies for the USA if the apostles of free trade were ever able to achieve their goal of permitting international trade to take place on the same terms as American domestic trade in a manner that realized the anticipated economic benefits: very nearly half of all American workers would be expected to leave the USA by the average age of 35!

This vast exodus of young Americans would say nothing, of course, of the hundreds of millions of non-American workers who would be expected to enter the USA, with all of the various consequences to be expected as a result of immigration that is an order of magnitude larger than the current wave.

The logic of free trade is inescapable. It amounts to a choice between a steadily declining living standard if free trade is limited to goods and capital versus the total destruction of the nation and the replacement of a majority of its population within a single lifetime if it is pursued to the full "beneficial extent" of the concept.

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105 Comments:

Blogger Aeoli Pera February 02, 2017 8:07 AM  

The fact that you care about such carnal and earthly things proves you're poor and lonely. We are enlightened beings of pure will and spirit, having been stripped of all material defects.

Blogger Aeoli Pera February 02, 2017 8:08 AM  

I'd show you to the door but, you know, no body and all. The help will see you out.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 8:09 AM  

Labor mobility is a feature, not a bug for ruling elites. Far better to see restive citizens leave for greener grass on the other side of the fence than challenge your escalating rapine.

This period in human history will eventually be given a label, because it is probably unprecedented. Never have so many people "peacefully" migrated, like weed seeds, only to sprout amidst the productive crops in other fields.

In recent centuries the greatest warfare took place between nation-states. As Lind and Creveld have written, in this--the twilight of the nation-state and dawn of renewed factionalism that preceded the 16th century, we are likely to see the greatest warfare take place within current nation-state boundaries and between the various "seeds" and "productive crops."

Blogger Shimshon February 02, 2017 8:10 AM  

Some people just seem ineducable on this subject.

Blogger Aeoli Pera February 02, 2017 8:17 AM  

Shimshon, it's a religious hangup.

Blogger allyn71 February 02, 2017 8:19 AM  

How long till we get the free trade doesn't need labor mobility argument. Not long I reckon.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 8:23 AM  

The logic of free trade is inescapable. It amounts to a choice between a steadily declining living standard if free trade is limited to goods and capital versus the total destruction of the nation and the replacement of a majority of its population within a single lifetime if it is pursued to the full "beneficial extent" of the concept.

The horror is that the High Moral Ground was ceded long ago to those who believe that Alan's high standard of living compared to Bruce's low standard of living is prima facie evidence of evil on the former's part. Since Alan is deemed evil, the hunt is on to assign him a sin, determine punishment and if necessary, burn him at the stake.

Destroying America's Middle Class (the Bourgeoisie) remains a key goal of Leftists, even as they callous their thumbs on their latest iPhone model. They look at the poverty in Africa or Honduras and the wealth of the USA and indulge in Moral Condemnation of those who sustain that gradient (a gradient sustained not by coercion but by Natural Creativity and Natural Innovation due to NATURAL DIFFERENCES.)

Those who can create high living standards ARE superior. Those who can't ARE inferior. But since even most "white" people cannot actually contribute to our technological wonders, there's always a vast majority of people, white-black-brown, who are GREEN with envy and thus construct elaborate mythologies to rationalize their hatred and their mechanisms for taking their betters down a few pegs (the "If I can't make it, I'll take yours, and if you object I'll burn yours, too" school of political science.)

Human social conditions are a sine wave. Recent technological marvels got way out ahead of the rising mean, and the "fix" throughout history is to destroy the products of that magic and drive the magicians into the desert. We're still early in that process.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 8:24 AM  

How long till we get the free trade doesn't need labor mobility argument. Not long I reckon.

The fact that they are reduced to deceitfully redefining "free trade" to exclude services and labor means that they know they've lost the argument.

Anonymous rienzi February 02, 2017 8:25 AM  

Does anyone have any ideas on what's going on in Iberia? Spain has the lowest number on the map, Portugal, one of the highest. Are the economies of the two countries that radically different?

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 8:30 AM  

@4 @5 More than religion. It's the animating force of Marxism (wise intellectuals outraged that they were penniless while midwit merchants lived far more opulent lives.)

It's all driven by envy, pure and simple. Once the envious take their creature comforts for granted, it's a short hop to marching in the streets, insisting that those who live well by way of naturally superior aptitudes be convicted of crimes against humanity, stripped of their material wealth and ultimately "made to pay for their sins."

1. What percentage of Americans actually contributes a net positive to our high living standards?
2. What percentage of Americans actually has a clue about how our creature comforts (much less our magic tech) comes to exist?

Once the answers to those questions drops below a certain threshold, all roads lead to a trip through the Valley of Hardship.

Blogger allyn71 February 02, 2017 8:34 AM  

The fact that they are reduced to deceitfully redefining "free trade" to exclude services and labor means that they know they've lost the argument.

That is part I don't understand, the minute you do that you concede you no longer have free trade. Instead of accepting that and following the logic they double down and defend the indefensible.

Muh Ricardo!!!! Rhetoric and feelz > Dialectic and thought I guess.

Blogger modsquad February 02, 2017 8:36 AM  

rienzi wrote:Does anyone have any ideas on what's going on in Iberia? Spain has the lowest number on the map, Portugal, one of the highest. Are the economies of the two countries that radically different?

Spain had the isolationist Franco years which cemented their feet at home. The fact that English has its lowest use there out of all western countries should be a marker.

OpenID paworldandtimes February 02, 2017 8:40 AM  

A popular meme on Polish facebook before PiS took power and it looked like refugees were gonna be coming in:

Panel one: a group of attractive young people and the caption EXPORT.

Panel two: a group of filthy, angry-looking third workers and the caption IMPORT.

PA

Anonymous acushla February 02, 2017 8:44 AM  

"The fact that they are reduced to deceitfully redefining "free trade"

I think part of their problem is they're reifying whole concepts and failing to realize that reality is more segmented and relative than the way they're taught these things. Trade exists on a number of interlocking gradients, which sort of flies over their heads. Two prosperous homogeneous countries with similar cultural and religious values and similar standards of living, can usually benefit from some form of things like "free" "trade" and comparative advantage. But a rich, free country cannot benefit from free trade with a poor, despotic, mercantilist one. Same thing with comparative advantage; it just turns into beggar-my-neighbor, as we are observing in real time.

Blogger Michael February 02, 2017 8:47 AM  

The cost of educating, training, health care, housing, and so on is born by the country of birth. The man or woman leaves....and the host country gets all of the benefits. It is a win for the host country. An allegory, it is cheaper to lose a military aircraft in combat, because it takes about 2 years to make a new one. To get a new picture
other it takes about 24 years. Therefore, the safety and survival systems are cheaper than replacing a pilot.

Blogger pyrrhus February 02, 2017 8:49 AM  

"As Dr. James Miller admitted in our debate, later published as On the Question of Free Trade, labor mobility, and its societal costs, are something that no free trade-advocating economist has ever taken into account."
Because when Adam Smith and David Ricardo were formulating their free trade ideas, there was essentially zero labor mobility between countries, and not very much mobility even within a country.

Blogger wreckage February 02, 2017 8:51 AM  

@14 I really have trouble understanding the model of trade that is espoused or even criticized here; I'm kinda grasping at your comment as a means of interpreting back through the concepts I understand.

The segmentation of trade might be a key concept to a free-trader (ie., "the government doesn't set my prices, I do") person like me.

I'm also interested in the idea that Vox's idea of unaccounted-for costs actually partially explains the failings of conventional economic models; the other partial explanation is that economies are not viewed as physical, real systems, but as magical, and from there it is assumed money drives the economy, when actually, like ANY non-magical system, it is driven by energy.

Anonymous Michael Maier February 02, 2017 8:55 AM  

How much of this relates to the saying "People in Europe think 100 miles is far, people in the US think 100 years is a long time?"

We also have cheaper gas.

Blogger wreckage February 02, 2017 8:56 AM  

Taleb's "Antifragile" also has some freakin' mind-expanding ideas on risk and opportunity, a key idea here is that with full mobility of capital and labour, there's a huge disparity in risk and "downside arbitrage"; which would be one way of accounting for, quantifying and analyzing the difference in free-trade benefit between the middle of the middle class, and the upper class proper.

And in fact there'd be three major layers: the educated working class, young with no kids: high mobility, high advantage. The upper capital class, again high mobility (since their economic inertia, mass, whatever is all capital and therefore unfettered) high advantage. The losers are about half the middle class, the bourgeois, those with physical investments and families - farmers, shopkeepers, manufacturers.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 9:06 AM  

Because when Adam Smith and David Ricardo were formulating their free trade ideas, there was essentially zero labor mobility between countries, and not very much mobility even within a country.

Precisely. Those arguments to which the uneducated midwits so proudly refer are utterly outdated. Although, of course, Smith, and particularly Ricardo, had flaws in their theories even at the time, as both Schumpeter and Fletcher have demonstrated in detail.

Anonymous acushla February 02, 2017 9:09 AM  

"the government doesn't set my prices, I do"

The thing is, of course, not even you set your prices. If you somehow do, then it isn't really "trade"; it's either mere stubborn haggling in the souk, or else it's a cartel.

Goddammit, I paid $250 for this VCR back in 1987, and I'm not going to sell it for a penny less.

Blogger Shane Chubbs February 02, 2017 9:14 AM  

I think you're missing a distinction. There is a difference between free trade of goods, and "free trade" of people. When a good is traded, there is someone who wants to sell and someone who wants to buy. Not the problem. With "free trade" of people, who is the "seller" and who is the "buyer"? You can have complete free trade of goods, or autarky, and anything in between, with either no immigration or emigration restrictions, or complete elimination of both or either immigration or emigration, or anything in between. Free trade of goods and "free trade" of people are two completely separate things, only joined by those wanting our destruction.

Anonymous Mycroft Jones February 02, 2017 9:26 AM  

Another type of free trade we'll need to examine is the free exchange of information. Now that information exchange is instantaneous, the net result is that the bulk of the world is filled with envy... and the communication media is 2 way, so they are reaching back to grab their share. Nigerian email scams, men pretending to be wealthy Arab oil sheiks, etc. Because seduction is so much easier than taking an army overseas to capture a bunch of females.

Anonymous dagwood February 02, 2017 9:26 AM  

(((only joined by those wanting our destruction.)))

FIFY.

Anonymous Mycroft Jones February 02, 2017 9:27 AM  

For centuries, the Muslims landed on European shores with impunity, grabbing slaves where-ever they wanted, even as far north as Ireland. The Internet and Smart-phone have enabled this woman-grabbing all over again, with less risk than ever before.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 9:31 AM  

The big mobility seen in the UK is actually people leaving the EU altogether. The top destinations for British citizens are, in order: Australia, Spain (lots of pensioners), USA, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa. EU expansion to the east caused our labour market - already straining under Blair's "open borders to the world" policy - to collapse at the lower end.

And the Balkan states with the biggest diasporas - Bosnia & Herzegovina and Albania aren't even members of the EU!

I visited Romania this summer. It's a wonderful country with a warm welcome. It's also suffering from catastrophic depopulation.

We stayed briefly in Alba Iulia, once a thriving city. It was deserted. No lights on at night. No one in the streets except the elderly, young children and stray dogs. Massive Ceausescu-era tower blocks to house workers with nobody in them.

We asked the receptionist in the hotel where everyone was. "They left." "Where did they go?" "If I knew that I would follow them."

@9

The economies aren't radically different. Both are smoking craters where an economy used to be.

The education systems are. Portugal's is decent and emphasises all children learning multiple languages from primary school onwards. This makes their workers much more mobile. Language education in Spain is as bad as it is in the Anglophone world. With the disadvantage that Spain is the richest part of the Spanish-speaking world.

Anonymous JB February 02, 2017 9:33 AM  

Look at the red-coloured "countries", practically half the population are all "Marco from Tropoja" causing havoc abroad... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ketCFOd-0Qg

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 9:41 AM  

And the high percentage for non-EU Ukraine and Belarus are illegal immigrants crossing into Poland to replace all the Polish tradesmen in the UK. Likewise from Moldova into Romania.

Free movement of peoples destroys the economies that supposedly benefit, too.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 9:41 AM  

@27, good point. It's not just melanin content that matters. Worldwide, few "low-melanin" people are predisposed to Commonweal orientation.

Clannish people descend on Commonweal societies like locusts on an unprotected field of mature crops.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 9:42 AM  

I think you're missing a distinction. There is a difference between free trade of goods, and "free trade" of people.

I know you're wrong and that you are either dishonest or ignorant. There is absolutely no distinction. Every single argument that applies to the free trade of goods applies to the free trade of services, including labor.

With "free trade" of people, who is the "seller" and who is the "buyer"?

The provider of the service is the seller and the person who provides money in return for that service is the buyer. This is not a difficult concept; goods and services are both included in GDP calculations.

Free trade of goods and "free trade" of people are two completely separate things, only joined by those wanting our destruction.

You're going to resort to absurd economic rhetoric here, of all places? Actually, those who want the destruction of the Christian West support both the free trade of goods and the free trade of people, because a) they are the same thing, and b) they lead to the same result, the destruction of nations and the impoverishment of the West.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 9:44 AM  

This period of "free movement of people" is IMO setting the stage for house-by-house warfare in a 4GW world.

I can think of no historical antecedent for the waves of continuing chaos this portends.

Blogger Chris Mallory February 02, 2017 9:49 AM  

rienzi wrote:Does anyone have any ideas on what's going on in Iberia? Spain has the lowest number on the map, Portugal, one of the highest. Are the economies of the two countries that radically different?

It is because so many Portuguese are really born Americans.

Anonymous Roundtine February 02, 2017 9:51 AM  

The globalists really need to think harder about how nations work. Under the globalist model, the political nations are erased, but then the whole world becomes open for colonization. Look how much the Jews dominate with only 15 million people. If 1 out of 20 Anglo-Saxons behave like Jews, or 1 out of 100 Chinese or Indians, the whole world will be controlled by these nations. The future will be Hindi, Chinese, and Anglo-Saxon.

Blogger Sillon Bono February 02, 2017 9:52 AM  

Spain had the isolationist Franco years which cemented their feet at home. The fact that English has its lowest use there out of all western countries should be a marker.

Spot on, Spaniards are simultaneously the least nationalistic people in the world (the left brainwashed them during decades) and at the same time they are the most ardent defenders of the mantra: "Spain is the best place to live on the face of the earth".

And it is true, Spain is a fantastic place to live, but their work market is closer to the URRS than a modern western country. The level of oligarchic protectionism at every level of society defies belief. They have 30%-40% of unemployment on some country regions and close to 25% at a national level.

If you want to laugh check the amount of UK people living in Spain, prepare to be amazed.

Blogger dc.sunsets February 02, 2017 9:53 AM  

@30, IMO much of the confusion about trade and migration stems from today's debt-saturated system.

In a FIAT money/Borrowing=wealth-creation world, there is no visible "outflow" of capital that depends from an inflow of "goods" and/or people.

It remains my thesis that Say's Law is inviolate, and something unseen is being consumed. In this case, it's capital. When the balance of payments is settled in debt-money, the debtor (e.g., the USA) is simply burning through productive capital somewhere. This takes many forms, including the export of manufacturing base and collapse of pathways (education, training) that lead to real production.

On every level we see systematic destruction of the capital required to sustain growing debt burdens while massive increases in dead-weight arrive across the Rio Grande and in Medicaid-funded urban labor-and-delivery wards.

Truly the Gates of Hell were opened from 1964 through 1971, socially and monetarily.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 9:55 AM  

Vox may have spent a decade in Europe but he still doesnt' understand us.

19% of Irish born live outside of Ireland. Do most of that 19% live in Europe? No, they live in the U.S., Canada and Australia - the three countries (apart from the U.K.) to which Irish have been immigrating over the past 50 years. That 19% of Irish born living outside of Ireland is a much lower percentage than it would have been in 1973 when Ireland joined the EU.

The 22% of Portuguese who live outside of Portugal: yes, there are lots of them in France (every other apartment block in Paris seems to have a Portuguese concierge). But Portugal didn't join the EU until 1986 and the era of Portuguese mass migration to France (and elsewhere) was BEFORE Portugal joined the EU. In fact, Portuguese membership of the EU and associated structural funds and agricultural subsidies for Portugal most likely has reduced Portuguese migration.

The claim that increasing country-to-country labor mobility rate within the EU is a major goal of the EU economic advisers (whoever they are supposed to be) is misleading. Economists may say that increased labor mobility will increase economic growth, but most of the EU's spending for the past 30 years has been directed specifically at LIMITING LABOUR MOBILITY - the Common Agricultural Policy (subsidise small farmers to stay on their farmers), the Regional Development Policy (pump infrastructure spending into poorer parts of the EU to support economic development there).

I love to read Vox's posts but when he talks about Europe and the EU he reminds me of a Harvard politics professor from India who came to the U.S. for her PhD ten years ago and now preaches about U.S. politics.

Anonymous Roundtine February 02, 2017 9:59 AM  

If you want to laugh check the amount of UK people living in Spain, prepare to be amazed.

Spain is open for the taking. Move in and make babies, the Spanish culture is inferior to German and Anglo culture. Get enough Germans and Anglos in there, and you'll also reproduce some American culture. Don't compromise. Colonize.

Blogger B.J. February 02, 2017 10:00 AM  

Wow, that is just really stark. Very thought provoking.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 10:01 AM  

Vox may have spent a decade in Europe but he still doesnt' understand us.

There is no us. You don't understand Italians or Lithuanians because you're Irish. More importantly, I don't need to understand anything about you at all to observe the relevant economic facts or the labor mobility statistics.

But Portugal didn't join the EU until 1986 and the era of Portuguese mass migration to France (and elsewhere) was BEFORE Portugal joined the EU.

Irrelevant. The Portuguese are still migrating heavily, and now it is easier than before. I know both the kind who arrived in Italy before I did 20 years ago, and those who arrived last summer. And the mass movement from Eastern Europe is obviously post-EU.

Your attempted critique is nothing more than silly posturing. Go read the statistics.

Blogger Sillon Bono February 02, 2017 10:07 AM  

the Spanish culture is inferior to German and Anglo culture.

Don't be an ignorant OK, nothing further from the truth, they have been massively cucked, like everybody else in Europe.

Spain is a force of nature with the right incentive. Distrust of muslims, blacks and other international dindus is genetic.

The only reason you get 3rd worlders in Spain is because the EU left is shoving them there down their throats.

Anonymous Roundtine February 02, 2017 10:16 AM  

Spain would be wiped out under full globalism. It's only saving grace is Mexican birth rates.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 10:26 AM  

Seriously Vox, I don't tell Americans how they should identify, please do me the favour (or favor) of not telling Europeans (or Irish, or Germans or whatever nationality of a European country) how to identify.

Someone in Barcelona may identify as Catalan, as Spanish and as European. Someone in Edinburgh may identify as Scottish, British and European. I'm all for Westphalianism when it comes to politics but your approach of treating European nation states as separate cultures doesn't make sense and doesn't fit with what you say in other contexts.

A Swiss from Ticino who migrates to Milan has less of a cultural shift than if he migrates to Zurich. A Fleming migrating from Antwerp to The Hague has less of a cultural shift than if she migrates to Liege. The current French prime minister was born in Barcelona to a Catalan-born and raised father and a Swiss Italian-born and raised mother. This is how Europe has always been - in the 19th century there was mass migration of Italians to northern France, of Poles to the Ruhr, of Italians to south Wales, etc. Does anyone know about this - no, because it wasn't an issue.

Under your approach a Polish migrant in the Ireland is as big an issue as a Somali migrant. That's simply not credible.

Anonymous LES February 02, 2017 10:29 AM  

According to my friend who immigrated from the US to Canada there must not be a Canadian nation as Canada is a multicultural utopia.
"Just come up here to discover this is not and needs not be true. First look at the church I attend (or one of many others): over 30 nations represented, Black persons from various African and Caribbean countries, South Asians, Chinese, Southeast Asians, Canadian and American caucasians, persons from the Middle East... . Our last four senior pastors have been from Philippines, Singapore (of Chinese heritage), Zambia (a black African, who also served as a pastor in The Netherlands), and now German-Canadian. Other members of our ministerial staff while I have been here have included natives of Egypt, Philippines, China, Korea and Iraq (actually Kurdish). Check out most communities large and small to find who run businesses and serve as communty leaders and officials. Look around my (any) neighborhood. Move on up to Ottawa to inspect the make-up of the Members of Parliament and the Cabinet of our Prime Minister (especially note the number of women and our Sikh-turbaned counterpart to the US Secretary of Defense, not to mention an aboriginal-Canadian Chief). Multiculturalism not only works, it thrives. It is, in the eyes of most Canadians, among the most important traits of our country (if not the most), making Canada truly great."

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 10:35 AM  

Seriously Vox, I don't tell Americans how they should identify, please do me the favour (or favor) of not telling Europeans (or Irish, or Germans or whatever nationality of a European country) how to identify.

Don't be ridiculous. As I have to keep explaining to the American white nationalists, there is no single European nation. There are only the people of the various nations located in Europe; that's like like referring to "North Americans" or "Central Americans".

I don't know how you identify nor do I care. Dogs are not fish. Men are not women. Irish are not Spaniards are not Germans. This isn't that hard.

Under your approach a Polish migrant in the Ireland is as big an issue as a Somali migrant. That's simply not credible.

Again, your statement is simply false. But the fact that a Somali migrant is a bigger problem than a Polish migrant does not mean that the Polish migrant is not a problem.

I would think you have read here long enough to grasp that I am not a binary thinker.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl February 02, 2017 10:35 AM  

Sillon Bono wrote:the Spanish culture is inferior to German and Anglo culture.

Don't be an ignorant OK, nothing further from the truth, they have been massively cucked, like everybody else in Europe.

Spain is a force of nature with the right incentive. Distrust of muslims, blacks and other international dindus is genetic.

The only reason you get 3rd worlders in Spain is because the EU left is shoving them there down their throats.


True enough. What was the northern Europe contribution to the great fight against the Orc Horde Caliphates? A few crusaders?

To paraphrase a historian (discussing Russia's wars against the Mongols) - Western Europe was safe to make trade deals and cuckoo clocks because Eastern Europeans and Southern Europeans (Russians, Serbs, Croats, Greeks, Italians, Spanish) bore the brunt of the orc assaults for a thousand years.

No discredit to the Crusaders or our German friends, nor Charles Martel, but credit due where credit is due.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 10:35 AM  

@40 "The only reason you get 3rd worlders in Spain is because the EU left is shoving them there down their throats."

It would be more accurate to refer to the Spanish left, rather than the EU left. Immigration into Spain from the third world is ENTIRELY within the control of Spain.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 10:36 AM  

Multiculturalism not only works, it thrives. It is, in the eyes of most Canadians, among the most important traits of our country (if not the most), making Canada truly great.

First, Canada isn't great. Second, he'll learn better soon enough. The US multicultis used to talk that way too, until it all went to Hell.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky February 02, 2017 10:38 AM  

In my hometown and its environs, you will find mostly two kinds of people: the very old and the very young. Everybody in between are very noticeably absent. That's because the area has been in an economic depression for an entire generation now. If you're at that age where you're starting out, trying to build a family, you leave. Perforce. Kevin D. Williamson and the like at NRO hail that, and if you fail to do so they deem you a "morally indefensible" sort who "deserved to die"(see: March 28th 2016 edition of National Review). Traitors. The whole edifice of what they've built is traitorous.

Blogger O Canastrão February 02, 2017 10:39 AM  

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Blogger DemonicProfessorEl February 02, 2017 10:39 AM  

PS - Yes a little hyperbolic, but the whole "the GERMANS ARE THE BEST" is a little one-sided.

And Vox is correct - comparing a whole number to the legalities and the present situation is nitpicking a little bit. This is a US context, but for example: much of the legal Hispanic community in the US predates 1965. This does not make an argument against the fact that illegal immigration has soared.

Blogger O Canastrão February 02, 2017 10:40 AM  

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Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 10:40 AM  

@45 Don Jon of Austria - born in Regensburg to a local mother - deserves to be named alongside Charles Martel. Poles deserve to be named along with the Russians, Serbs and Croats - it was John Sobieski who saved Vienna from the Turk in 1683 and Poland fought seven wars against the Turk from 1443 to 1699.

Blogger O Canastrão February 02, 2017 10:41 AM  

The insertion of a foreign entity in a society always has some kind of costs. These range from small costs of assimilation to high costs of internal war with the foreign entity due to being impossible to assimilate.

I am Portuguese and despite that, I am perfectly aware that Portuguese migration to France, that started in the 1960s, had it societal costs to the French. However, these are exponentially lower than the societal costs of receiving a big chunk of muslims.

Lets consider it the other way around: if 1 million Frenchmen were to gradually arrive to Lisbon in the next 10 years it would cause turmoil to a certain with the local population. Even though we have the same western civ and catholic cultural and historical background.

Blogger modsquad February 02, 2017 10:41 AM  

As far as wage control goes, Reinhart knows his stuff:

https://enronnext101.wordpress.com/

Blogger Happy LP9 February 02, 2017 10:45 AM  

Is it true that industrialization and labor mobility also disrupts the family unit and reduces child bearing?

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl February 02, 2017 10:53 AM  

"This is why the Midwest has changed much less over the last 40 years than either the East Coast or the West Coast; more Midwesterners stay in the Midwest and maintain their laws and cultural traditions. But more importantly, note what this signifies for the USA if the apostles of free trade were ever able to achieve their goal of permitting international trade to take place on the same terms as American domestic trade in a manner that realized the anticipated economic benefits: very nearly half of all American workers would be expected to leave the USA by the average age of 35!

This vast exodus of young Americans would say nothing, of course, of the hundreds of millions of non-American workers who would be expected to enter the USA, with all of the various consequences to be expected as a result of immigration that is an order of magnitude larger than the current wave."

One of the consequences thereof being the destruction of cultural institutions, not an unintended consequence I suspect.

And per the US Midwest - I'm originally from there and predicted (along with others) the Trumpening there, even accounting for all the vote fraud. I'd give an estimate of at least a million or so fakes, but that would be the low estimate for that.

I also wonder if, with some exceptions (socialist Germans in Milwaukee and Chicago, and certain, darker peoples), the Midwest's immigration habits don't help with this. Immigrant assimilation as a lot more diffuse amongst a strong Anglo-German foundation (Indiana, Ohio, Michigan) than it was in certain other areas (Massachusetts, New Jersey).

On another note - Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland are very, very corrupt Democrat Urban Machine cities. "Voting" is not wholly representative of the constituents there, as has been shown. Anecdotal, but I knew quite a few Chicagoans who bought guns before Obobo's inauguration in 2009. And, according to them, it was pretty widespread among their friends/coworkers.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 10:57 AM  

@42

Italian migration to the UK in the 19th century is such a pathetic example that it undermines your already very flimsy thesis.

There were 20,000 Italians in the whole United Kingdom (not just Cardiff & environs) in 1915. That's why they were successfully integrated: there were hardly any of them.

There are people in Europe who put great store into their identity as "Europeans", that's undeniable. I saw a bunch of them dressed as vaginas marching in London the other week.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl February 02, 2017 10:58 AM  

Le Regardeur wrote:@45 Don Jon of Austria - born in Regensburg to a local mother - deserves to be named alongside Charles Martel. Poles deserve to be named along with the Russians, Serbs and Croats - it was John Sobieski who saved Vienna from the Turk in 1683 and Poland fought seven wars against the Turk from 1443 to 1699.

Very true! I did forget them in my speed of writing - they're definitely at the top of the list.

No harm nor disrespect intended. Jan Sobieski is a bad dude :)

Plus, the Poles did demolish the Mongols pretty well in their next foray. I would wager that's why the Poles are being pretty badass about not letting "refugees" in their country. "I thought we settled this in the 1690s?"

And hurrah to Don Jon of Austria - Lepanto was a ridiculous and crushing defeat of the Turk :)

Anonymous BBGKB February 02, 2017 11:01 AM  

The globalists really need to think harder about how nations work.

Since jews have been kicked out of nations 200+ times, if there is a one world government where would they be kicked to next?

Blogger Jose February 02, 2017 11:02 AM  

22.3% for Portugal? That's very high, difficult to see a future for the nation. -- He said from California.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl February 02, 2017 11:05 AM  

BBGKB wrote:The globalists really need to think harder about how nations work.

Since jews have been kicked out of nations 200+ times, if there is a one world government where would they be kicked to next?


Magically, Moon colonies would come back into the discourse.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 11:12 AM  

@57 I accept your criticism re Italians moving to Wales. I thought that a lot of what you said in your previous post was valid and along the lines of what I said in my first post.

My position is more or less the same as @43. From your earlier post it seems that your view is similar.

Two points which I haven't seen mentioned in the context of intra-EU migration are:

- Post migration family formation, which is just a fancy way of asking whether the migrants marry other migrants from the same country or village from which they have come or whether they marry with the natives and are absorbed within a couple of generations (although I take @43's point that absorption is never purely one-way). This in turn goes back to why migrants migrate in the first place and what their family position is at the time.

- Temporary vs permanent migration: Do the migrants end up returning to their home country (with any children which they have) or do they stay there permanently.

Certainly, a much bigger share of intra-EU migration is temporary than is migration to Europe from the developing world. The Polish girl who cut my hair yesterday has been in London for five years - she met her Polish boyfriend here - they will go back to Poland in another year and a half.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 11:19 AM  

@45

You call colonizing North America and Australasia, bringing some (brief) order to Africa, smashing the Mughal Empire and bringing the Qing to heel "making trade deals and cuckoo clocks"?

Anonymous Überdeplorable Psychedelic Cat Hair February 02, 2017 11:25 AM  

"Does anyone have any ideas on what's going on in Iberia? Spain has the lowest number on the map, Portugal, one of the highest. Are the economies of the two countries that radically different?"

@9 My information is dated and limited to one geographical area so take it for what you will. When I was in Madrid 9 years (wow, can't believe I'm typing that) for six months, it was bad. I remember going into multiple bars and talking with somebody (this was within the three months) and asking who all that worked the bar was in a Spaniard. Often times I heard, "Oh there's only one/two Spaniards here. The rest of us are from [a former Spanish colony]." Additionally, the Spaniards I spent time with were very right wing; Spain, at the time, seemed to be over run. Granted, on the one hand, just like DC it's a capital city. Still, the lack of Spaniards in many cases was startling to me.

"A popular meme on Polish facebook before PiS took power and it looked like refugees were gonna be coming in:

Panel one: a group of attractive young people and the caption EXPORT.

Panel two: a group of filthy, angry-looking third workers and the caption IMPORT."

@13 Funny stuff.

"Because when Adam Smith and David Ricardo were formulating their free trade ideas, there was essentially zero labor mobility between countries, and not very much mobility even within a country.

Precisely. Those arguments to which the uneducated midwits so proudly refer are utterly outdated. Although, of course, Smith, and particularly Ricardo, had flaws in their theories even at the time, as both Schumpeter and Fletcher have demonstrated in detail."

@20 Gotta thank you Vox for destroying the lingering slant I had in favor free trade. It horrifies me my generation (early Millenials '83-'90) were brought up on this nonesense and told to treat it as Gospel. How many economists, in terms of percentage, do you think still believe in the charade that is free trade?

"The big mobility seen in the UK is actually people leaving the EU altogether. The top destinations for British citizens are, in order: Australia, Spain (lots of pensioners), USA, Canada, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa. EU expansion to the east caused our labour market - already straining under Blair's "open borders to the world" policy - to collapse at the lower end. "

@26 There's a part of Madrid full of pensioners. My crew on Sundays for wine and tapas post Traditional Latin Mass were my buddy from Madrid, two of his friends, and this guy from London. Good group.

"We asked the receptionist in the hotel where everyone was. 'They left.' 'Where did they go?" "If I knew that I would follow them."

Ouch!

"Look at the red-coloured "countries", practically half the population are all "Marco from Tropoja" causing havoc abroad... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ketCFOd-0Qg"

@27 Beat me to it! Well played sir.

"The only reason you get 3rd worlders in Spain is because the EU left is shoving them there down their throats."

@40 The things some Spaniard say about the third worlders....heh heh

"On another note - Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland are very, very corrupt Democrat Urban Machine cities. "Voting" is not wholly representative of the constituents there, as has been shown. Anecdotal, but I knew quite a few Chicagoans who bought guns before Obobo's inauguration in 2009. And, according to them, it was pretty widespread among their friends/coworkers."

@56 One of my dad's partners did his residency up in Chicago. This was back in the '80s: he goes into his polling precinct and asked why the Republican machine was not turned on; poll worker says nobody votes Republican. They had to turn the machine on just for him. Cook County has been corrupt every since its inception.

Anonymous acushla February 02, 2017 11:26 AM  

"Irish are not Spaniards are not Germans."

Weirdly (and historically) enough, the Irish actually kinda ARE Spaniards. The Celtic invasion of the island, replacing the aboriginal people there, mostly came from the Celtiberians in Hispania. Doesn't disprove your point, I just find it interesting.

"a much bigger share of intra-EU migration is temporary than is migration to Europe from the developing world."

Can we please all stop calling places like Sudan and Guatemala and Zambia "the developing world"? They're never going to "develop" the way we understand it. If they were, then when the f!ck are they finally going to finish developing?

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 11:26 AM  

@62

Well, you're right. I absolutely agree that this is a phenomenon that extends well beyond the borders of the EU.

And you raise a very good point about family formation. I don't think there is much intermarriage. As you point out, most of the intra-European migration (particularly from the A8 and Iberia) is not permanent. Our leaders seem to think it's a great thing for the low paid jobs in our economies to be permanently given over to an itinerant class of temporary labourers who do not integrate and are easily exploited.

In Romania I witnessed this phenomenon too. Small towns are pretty dilapidated with a range of wood shacks and semi-occupied grey communist blocks. And every once in a while you see a palace that someone returned from 5 or 10 years in the West has built for themselves. One bright Barbie-pink one was pointed out by a friend as belonging to a woman who had spent 5 years in a window in Amsterdam.

If you live in London you can probably see the lack of integration of Europeans with the vanishing native population. Parties are usually either 100% foreign workers with some Indians or Chinese LARPing as "British" or about 90% Brits with a few guests. That it's Poles and Slovaks who've displaced my community rather than Arabs and Pakistanis doesn't change the fact of displacement.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 11:30 AM  

@64

There was no displacement of the aboriginal people. The first wave of settlers were Paleolithic people who lived in the Iberian refuge during the Last Glacial Maximum. They arrived in a land that had previously been polar desert.

Linguistic change happens without significant population change.

Anonymous BBGKB February 02, 2017 11:45 AM  

More effects of free trade. Donkey show women can spread disease.

http://www.breitbart.com/california/2017/02/01/biorisk-death-china-california-first-case-100-drug-resistant-infection-los-angeles/

"The mcr-1 gene is zoonotic, which means it can be transferred from humans to animals or vice versa. After it was first determined in June that seagulls may carry mcr-1, health officials realized that the gene could be subject to airborne transmission; transmission through animal interactions; through handling infected meat; and by drinking animal-contaminated water."

Anonymous acushla February 02, 2017 11:47 AM  

"Linguistic change happens without significant population change."

Yes, I was saying exactly that to my Huron friend just the other day. In French.

I think what you mean is Linguistic change CAN happen etc etc.

It was a little joke on a blog, not an address to the Hibernian Academy.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 12:07 PM  

@68

Sorry, I just jump on stuff like this because it's the total BS arguments used by the open borders crowd to try and shoe-horn the "nation of immigrants" argument and apply it to the UK & Ireland.

The 'can' modifier is unnecessary and doesn't change the meaning of my sentence. Go have a chat with some nearby Senegalese or Jamaicans. Or Welsh or Irish.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 1:01 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 1:03 PM  

@65 I live in London so the parties example you give is one that my wife and I have discussed many times.

Re lack of integration between native English and immigrants, I agree with what you say, with one exception. I am Catholic and my daughters go to Catholic school and that is the one place where I see a large amount of integration between native English and immigrants. That's something that's been the case among London Catholics for a couple of generations, so a lot of those we know through the church will have one English parent and one immigrant parent. To me this is an example of how a shared religion between immigrants and natives facilitates integration and avoids the growth of parallel cultures. Of course, very few immigrants to the U.K. are Anglican, but oddly one of the immigrant groups that has integrated most in the U.K. is black Caribbeans who are Anglican.

The Poles who were in the U.K. in 1948 very largely integrated without there ever having been any significant issues that I can recall. The 1951 UK census had 162,339 included Polish born people, almost all of whom would have arrived in the previous 15 years. I think integration is much more of an issue now because technological changes, e.g. cheaper flights, the internet, etc. allow immigrants to feel like they have one foot in their country of birth and one foot in their country of residence, and don't integrate so much in the later.

The native English were moving out of London from WWII onwards, even though there was minimal immigration from outside the British Isles until the mid-1960s. Many people were happy to have immigrants coming into to be able to sell-up to. (And even before WWII there were parts of London that had big ethnic minority concentrations - Irish, Jews, Italians.) In the past 10-15 years the developed world trend towards living nearer city centres has changed preference patterns. There's a certain bitterness among people who moved to places like Clacton at seeing property in the areas they left being now worth so much. They sold their birthright for a mess of potage but now they want it back.

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 1:51 PM  

@71

I'm a Catholic too. But Catholicism isn't the majority sect here as you well know. The people that you perceive as native English most probably have Irish surnames. As an English Catholic living in London I can assure you that London Catholics are very much a parallel culture.

The post-WWII Poles integrated for one very important reason. They were soldiers and airmen who had come here during the war and been unable to return to Poland afterwards. If they wanted to have children they had to integrate - find a native girl to settle down with. I knew of several such couples growing up. This is another weak example.

So what if there were foreign populations in parts of London before the second world war? It was the capital of the largest empire the world has ever seen. I really fail to see how any of this is justification for the levels of immigration that have persisted since the 90s. You can come up with any number of complex rationalisations to justify your presence here. Please stop mangling my history and heritage to suit your agenda.

The remark about Clacton shows that you really haven't integrated as well as you imagine you have. There was significant resistance to immigration post-WWII. Never heard of Enoch Powell? He was pretty bloody popular at the time, you know.

Blogger Nick S February 02, 2017 1:53 PM  

All the chest thumping and puffing up to some nebulous enemy with memes and rhetoric on Twitter is cute and all, but a physical counter offensive needs to be mounted. All the Brick & Mortars linked to the globalist George Soros (Open Society Foundation, Media Matters, MoveOn.org, Immigrant Voters Win, Human Rights Watch and many more) around the world need to be targeted...just for the purpose of *protesting* them, of course. That is who is behind all this nonsense.

Blogger James Dixon February 02, 2017 2:02 PM  

> I am Portuguese and despite that, I am perfectly aware that Portuguese migration to France, that started in the 1960s, had it societal costs to the French.

It also has societal costs to Portugal.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 2:10 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 2:12 PM  

@72 I don't need to justify my presence in London any more than Vox needs to justify his presence in Italy. Let's not make this too personal.

In your earlier post you made the point that for migrants to London there's not any cohesive majority culture to integrate into. I agree with that, so you'll understand that I don't think that I've integrated much at all.

Clearly I touched on some nerves with my comment about how English people effectively "sold out" to immigrants. But that's what happened and that's what's still happening. You may regard immigration into England as the disease, but I tell you that it is a symptom. One of the reasons that English people accepted and indeed welcomed high levels of immigration is the class divide that resulted in a split population. Even now, in London, there is as much of gap between English people of different classes as there is between English and immigrants of the same class.

Blogger VFM #7634 February 02, 2017 2:34 PM  

I visited Romania this summer. It's a wonderful country with a warm welcome. It's also suffering from catastrophic depopulation.

We stayed briefly in Alba Iulia, once a thriving city. It was deserted. No lights on at night. No one in the streets except the elderly, young children and stray dogs. Massive Ceausescu-era tower blocks to house workers with nobody in them.


@26 Henry Havelock
Yup... Romania is a prime example. A large chunk of their working-age population have moved to Italy and Spain, due to the low language barriers I guess. But Poland, Lithuania, and Moldova too.

The former Yugoslavia was due to the war, and the Albanians due to their African birth rates pre-1990 and no jobs, leading to a huge number of unemployable young people.

Meanwhile, in our hemisphere, Puerto Rico is in a similar boat as Romania and company, due to their free immigration rights to the United States. But they're only a few million people and haven't contributed anything to civilization, so they won't be missed. (But imagine if El Salvador, or god forbid Mexico, had free immigration rights to the United States.)

Blogger VFM #7634 February 02, 2017 2:35 PM  

But Poland, Lithuania, and Moldova too.

I mean, those are the other main examples of countries bleeding dry of their people due to free migration.

Blogger Last Redoubt February 02, 2017 2:58 PM  

Interestingly enough I'd just run into Samzdata's post on how free trade still really works despite capital mobility:

https://www.samizdata.net/2017/02/free-movement-of-capital-undermines-the-case-for-free-trade/

Things rarely addressed by the true believers:

a) free trade being gamed by one side, like China, which is protectionist, used de facto slave labor (and it isn't much better now), and takes advantage of new factories to steal technologies they did not have.

b) It's not just the mobility of capital, but people

c) that, while free traders don't treat people as fungible in their personal consumer preferences, they StILL treat them as fungible widgets who can be thrown at any job with minimum retraining - which is patently not true, especially if those other jobs are ALSO going overseas... so now the consumers in question don't just have a different job, but a much worse, or no job, to buy consumer goods. I get dealing in generalities, but they seem to forget that theory needs to apply to practice.

and d) Antifragility. Not keeping tribal knowledge, backup capacity, etc. "in house" makes up for in effectiveness, antifragility, and resilience, for a lot of beancounting savings. When your trading partner monopolizes an industry through "comparative advantage", and no longer is your trading partner because that country and yours don't get along?

Anonymous Henry Havelock February 02, 2017 3:33 PM  

@76

No, you don't. But you are desperately trying to justify it to yourself with reference to pre-WWIII immigration. The foreign born population of the UK was 1.75% in 1931. In 2011 it was 14%. The first doesn't justify the second.

London still had 59% White British population as of the 2011 census. The real truth, hard though it is to accept, is that the cohesive majority culture doesn't want to integrate with you. In fact they're leaving the city rather than live near you.

And thanks for the lesson in my own country's class system. Much appreciated. Net migration had actually reached manageable levels in the 90s. And it was negative for much of the 70s and 80s. It went from 47,000 in 1997 to 335,000 last year. I'm well aware that we were betrayed by the establishment. I lived here to witness it.

Blogger Jose February 02, 2017 4:09 PM  

Since it's a work day, in lieu of a long comment reiterating well-established points, here are said points:

Mobility isn't the solution to poverty (which is the usual argument from the left), aka the gumball video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LPjzfGChGlE

Mobility of the high-value human capital costs long term competitiveness for a country, a subset of this argument:

http://sitacuisses.blogspot.com/2011/08/decline-and-fall-of-western.html

(Defeats the arguments for capital mobility, including human capital, on the right. Mostly about high-value labor, not the garden-variety migration.)

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 4:17 PM  

@80 I'm mystified by your quoting of net migration numbers. When net migration was neutral in the 70s and 80s hundreds of thousands of English were emigrating - as you said in your earlier post.
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/february-2014/sty-ltim.html

As you say, over the period 1970 to 1993 as a whole there was net emigration from the U.K. Yet that is a period in which the non-U.K. born share of the population rose exponentially. Were you fine with all the demographic changes over that period and its just the net immigration since then that's a problem?

Your claim that English people are leaving rather than be near immigrants doesn't isn't reflected by the rate of English leaving the UK - that no higher now than it was in 1970. It's also not reflected in how house prices in London have moved over the past 20 years - prices have risen much more rapidly in the inner suburbs where the English-born percentage of the population was lowest than they have in the outer suburbs where the English-born percentage of the population was highest. In fact, some areas of central London immigrants have become sufficiently gentrified by immigrants that middle class English are moving there. It's a brutal truth that many upper middle class English people prefer to live beside an immigrant family than an English working class one.

Anonymous Azimus February 02, 2017 6:10 PM  

Shouldn't Crimea by 7.4? Har har har

What's that country in the Balkans that everyone's trying to leave - oh thats Bosnia

It is hard to believe the number for Turkey. Very hard. I mean, 4% of the Turks might be in Syria RIGHT NOW... not to mention Germany...

Anonymous Loki7 February 02, 2017 6:21 PM  

@5. ``Immigrant assimilation as a lot more diffuse amongst a strong Anglo-German fountion...``Anglo-GERMAN? Half the whites in North Dakota and Idaho are of German decent and whle the ones in ID are well assimilationed, the ND ones...well not so much. In ID they fused with an equal number of native Anglos while in ND the other half was made up of immigrants from Scania and Slavland. (I`ve lived in both states).

Anonymous Azimus February 02, 2017 6:28 PM  

Another thought as I look at that map. I was just reading the history of Trieste, a former city of the Austro-Hungarian (polyglot) empire, now part of Italy. If you look at the areas of the map that were former Imperial territories - they are still messed up, literally 99 years later. Will the land ever be healed from the pox of multiculturalism? I need to read more history of that part of the world - it will probably inform events in the US in the next decades.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 6:29 PM  

@83 Turkey has a very big population. There are at least 4m people of Turkish background living in Germany. However, given that migration from Turkey to Germany started in 1961 and fell after 1977, a big chunk of that 4m was born in Germany. There are maybe only 1.5-2m Turkey-born residents of Germany. To put that in context, the population of Turkey is 75m.

Blogger wreckage February 02, 2017 6:34 PM  

I'll be following along. I'm a die-hard free trader, so just the fact that Vox has my attention speaks pretty well for him. Like I said, there are known irregularities not only in the modeling but even in the basic logic, and it's especially bad with establishment economists, regardless of their "school".

Blogger VFM #7634 February 02, 2017 6:44 PM  

As you say, over the period 1970 to 1993 as a whole there was net emigration from the U.K. Yet that is a period in which the non-U.K. born share of the population rose exponentially.

@82 Le Regardeur
Sure, growing from 0.01% to 0.1% to 1% is exponential growth, but it's not immediately obvious to the host population.

Now when it gets up to 10%...

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2017 7:46 PM  

Free trade - turning us all into citizens of the world.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2017 7:47 PM  

@1 Aeoli Pera
The fact that you care about such carnal and earthly things proves you're poor and lonely. We are enlightened beings of pure will and spirit, having been stripped of all material defects.
---

Well, he is stuck in 3D/4D thinking. Feel free to move about and trade freely with your 3rd eye in the 5th-x dimensions.

Blogger VD February 02, 2017 7:52 PM  

Your claim that English people are leaving rather than be near immigrants doesn't isn't reflected by the rate of English leaving the UK - that no higher now than it was in 1970.

You clearly have no idea what is going on outside your little bubble. It's almost amusing. I know more than a few Brits. They don't even want to go into London for the day anymore, much less live there. Most of them talk about it rather like Americans do about DC and Hollywood.

Blogger papabear February 02, 2017 7:57 PM  

It is difficult for the modern Western Catholic to stop being a cuck.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2017 8:04 PM  

@31 dc.sunsets

I can think of no historical antecedent for the waves of continuing chaos this portends.
---

Maybe something like the wild west era in Arizona or something along those lines? You could be attacked by outlaws, greedy prospecters, apache, comanche, mexican banditos, Mexican army, and so on.

Blogger Were-Puppy February 02, 2017 8:22 PM  

@64 acushla
If they were, then when the f!ck are they finally going to finish developing?
---

This reminds me of the funny concept: When will the rest of the monkeys evolve into humans ?

Blogger Le Regardeur February 02, 2017 8:40 PM  

Vox: Yes, London is just a nightmare. The trains are completely overcrowded and the past six months it seems like there is a strike every week. And the air pollution this winter - awful. Don't get me started on the schools - the results may be better than any other region of England but compared with Ireland. And the murder rate may be lower than every other big city in England - but still very dangerous.

The England (not Brits!) who whine about London are just telling themselves that because they can't afford to live here.

Anonymous Dave February 02, 2017 9:02 PM  

The fall of the Berlin Wall gave East Germany a male-heavy sex ratio as all the attractive young women became receptionists in West Germany. It had the opposite effect in Poland, where mostly men left to work as plumbers and carpenters.

No wonder Ukrainians are so eager to join the EU. Politicians want the development subsidies, and young people want to get the hell out of Ukraine!

Blogger Mordakei Silberreich February 02, 2017 9:55 PM  

Are you high goy?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash February 02, 2017 11:19 PM  

papabear wrote:It is difficult for the modern Western Catholic to stop being a cuck.
I managed somehow.

Anonymous BBGKB February 02, 2017 11:56 PM  

In fact, some areas of central London immigrants have become sufficiently gentrified by immigrants that middle class English are moving there

By gentrified you mean an illiterate given a well paying government job, that the neighbors can feel smarter than. In DC an Asian engineer with a PHD lost a promotion to a black illiterate because of affirmative action.

Blogger Le Regardeur February 03, 2017 7:43 AM  

@99 No, that's not what I mean by gentrified. There is virtually no affirmative action in the U.K. outside of the broadcast and print media.

There is minimal affirmative action in university admissions. The admissions are generally based on school grades. Some universities such as Oxford and Cambridge have interviews but the complaint is that they admit hardly any black students.

There is no affirmative action in judicial appointments. Of the most senior 150 judges only 10-15% are women and the number of minority ethnics is 4 or 5. The English legal system is a big selling point and nobody would want to undermine that.

There is no affirmative action in any significant government jobs. A few of the left-wing run municipalities have practised it in the past in various ways but that was more prevalent in the 80s and 90s than it is now (because the voters soon got sick of it).

I'm really happy to engage with people on this site but Americans need to realise that the world outside America is a different place and their knowledge of it is extremely limited.

Blogger VFM #7634 February 03, 2017 11:19 AM  

Spain had the isolationist Franco years which cemented their feet at home. The fact that English has its lowest use there out of all western countries should be a marker.

@12 modsquad
The Spaniards also tend toward being rude and contemptuous pricks. The one Catalan I've met was like that too. They're by far the worst in all of Europe; the French are nowhere near as bad. The Brits also tend to be rude, but in a more frat-boyish way: they're more good-natured about it and don't really treat you like an inferior. The Spanish, by contrast, seem to think of themselves as some kind of master race.

Learning a foreign language is, in a sense, a gesture of politeness, so Spanish insufferability nicely helps explain their having the worst English skills in Europe.

Blogger VFM #7634 February 03, 2017 11:20 AM  

It is difficult for the modern Western Catholic to stop being a cuck.

@92 papacuck
It's much easier once you recognize that the Vatican II "popes" are all invalid antipopes, and that the last real known Pope we've had was Pius XII.

Blogger Rez Zircon February 03, 2017 1:08 PM  

"...very nearly half of all American workers would be expected to leave the USA by the average age of 35!"

And if they did leave the USA, explain how they are expected to find jobs (at least with equivalent pay) in areas that apparently were so job-poor that everyone there had to come to the USA to find work.

This whole concept doesn't work unless there's _always_ some better place to go. Meaning the whole "free movement of labor" thing is a giant pyramid scheme.

Blogger wreckage February 06, 2017 10:06 AM  

"Meaning the whole "free movement of labor" thing is a giant pyramid scheme."

Free trader noting that as an excellent point. Thankyou.

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